After working for years on supporting early childhood improvements, including the Big Bold Ask’s $331 million in annual added investment, I realized early in 2023 that I hadn’t understood the scale of our challenges. I hadn’t taken in how we are from child care capacity reaching all our under-fives, from state child care assistance reaching all our low-income under fives, or from state preschool serving all the children who qualify for it.
In this post, I’ll share the newest version of the numbers that startled me. Readers who know this field well will find this information familiar, of course. For others, this post is a chance to join me in surprise and (I hope) new energy for strengthening support for the youngest Kentuckians.
Big Round Numbers
Kentucky has roughly:
- 265,000 children under 5
- 125,000 children 5 and in low-income households
That’s based on American Community Survey’s 2021 five-year estimates, the most recent available that will also let us look at county level age data.
To support those kids, Kentucky has about:
- 163,000 child care openings
- 26,000 CCAP (Child Care Assistance Program) recipients
- 22,000 preschool participants
Those figures come from 2023 Early Childhood Profiles recently released by the Kentucky Center for Statistics. Each is better than the equivalent number reported in 2022, but still weak. Head Start numbers deserve equal consideration here, but this year’s Profiles do not include that data.
These numbers don’t match up as I hoped they would because:
- 165,000 child care slots misses a lot of those 265,000 young children.
- 26,000 CCAP beneficiaries leaves a lot of those 125,000 with lower incomes unassisted.
- 22,000 in state funded preschool leaves out a lot of eligible children. Even though I don’t have a precise source, I think we might have around 39,000 children who meet the eligibility rules.
Coming next, some added detail on the programs, improved numbers after early pandemic lows, and a look at how these challenges map out over Kentucky’s 120 counties.
Young Children with Low Incomes
47% of Kentucky’s youngest children have household incomes below 200% of the poverty level. That’s about 125,000 of the 265,000 under 5.
The challenge of low family incomes isn’t spread evenly across the state, though. Here’s a map showing county-level differences.
More than 80% of young children in Lee, McCreary, and Wolfe live in low-income houses, spotlighted in darker orange. In a set of lighter orange counties, located mainly east of I-75, more than 60% of children face that economic disadvantage. In contrast, the counties in green –where less than 40% face that challenge– are mostly in the northcentral part of the state. Do note that Jefferson and Fayette (our two largest counties) have rates of 44% and 43%, only a little better off than the statewide 47%.
Because these numbers are five-year estimates, they combine American Community Survey data from 2017 to 2021. They combine pre-pandemic and early pandemic rates. New estimates that add in 2022 data and first recovery-impacts will be available this December.
Child Care Capacity
Kentucky’s childcare capacity can serve about 61% of our children under five. The new Early Childhood Profiles show 2021-22 capacity to serve roughly 163,000 children. In last year’s report, we had only 151,000 seats, so there’s some nice growth there. Even so, we’re well short of enough seats for our 265,000 children too young for kindergarten. Importantly, those seats aren’t evenly distributed, as shown in the next map.
Here, every county shown in yellow, light orange, and darker orange is below that 61% statewide level. In nearly every eastern county, families face higher challenges finding care. Families in and near Jefferson, Fayette, Warren and Northern Kentucky may find it at least a little easier.
Child Care Assistance
In 2021-22, about 21,000 children benefited from CCAP, the program designed to support care for low-income children and workforce participation for their parents. That’s out out of more than 125,000 chlidren with incomes below 200% of poverty. It’s an important improvement over 21,000 a year earlier, but it’s still alarmingly low. Roughly, about 21% of Kentucky’s low-income children benefit from CCAP.
The low state figures convert to a pretty grim map at the county level, one that pretty much only shows low assistance levels. Jefferson, Fayette, Northern Kentucky, and some places nearby have better rates than most of the state, even though no place has rates that count as high or very high.
State Preschool
Since 1990, Kentucky has offered state-funded preschool for four-year-olds from low-income households and for threes and fours with identified disabilities or developmental delays. The Early Childhood profiles show that program serving about 22,000 kids in 2021-22, up from around 18,000 a year earlier.
That’s about 9% of children under five, or about 26,000 kids. Very loosely, another 13,000 might be eligible: that’s my estimate based on about 18,000 eligible based on income, 17,000 based on disabilities/delays, and 4,000 eligible under both criteria.
Mapping by counties, Jefferson, Fayette, Northern Kentucky, and nearby areas have lower preschool rates than most counties shown, and the strongest participation levels are mostly to the south. Their child care strength and preschool weakness may be connected., perhaps because many parents are choosing year-round care over school-year-only preschool. However, Eastern Kentucky stands out with many of the lowest preschool participation rates clustered in that region.
Moving Forward
For Kentucky to build a Big Bold Future, our youngest children must flourish, and their parents must be active contributors to our workforce and our communities. As I said at the outset, my head nearly exploded when I realized how far our key supports for those kids and families are from meeting their needs. These numbers illustrate again the need for new investments, including the $331 million in annual upgrades for early childhood called in the Big Bold Ask.
One more note: these weaknesses will get sharply worse in the coming months if Kentucky does not commit to added investment. As federal pandemic dollars end, there will be too few dollars to sustain even current child care supports. Without added preschool funding, rates per child are dropping, and that program may also become unsustainable. Learn more about this fragile ecosystem here.
