Data
5 min read

Mapping Kentucky Early Childhood

Mapping Kentucky Early Childhood
Written by
The Prichard Committee
Published on
October 16, 2023

After working for years on supporting early childhood improvements, including the Big Bold Ask’s $331 million in annual added investment, I realized early in 2023 that I hadn’t understood the scale of our challenges. I hadn’t taken in how we are from child care capacity reaching all our under-fives, from state child care assistance reaching all our low-income under fives, or from state preschool serving all the children who qualify for it.

In this post, I’ll share the newest version of the numbers that startled me. Readers who know this field well will find this information familiar, of course. For others, this post is a chance to join me in surprise and (I hope) new energy for strengthening support for the youngest Kentuckians.

Big Round Numbers

Kentucky has roughly:

  • 265,000 children under 5
  • 125,000 children 5 and in low-income households

That’s based on American Community Survey’s 2021 five-year estimates, the most recent available that will also let us look at county level age data.

To support those kids, Kentucky has about:

  • 163,000 child care openings
  • 26,000 CCAP (Child Care Assistance Program) recipients
  • 22,000 preschool participants

Those figures come from 2023 Early Childhood Profiles recently released by the Kentucky Center for Statistics. Each is better than the equivalent number reported in 2022, but still weak. Head Start numbers deserve equal consideration here, but this year’s Profiles do not include that data.

These numbers don’t match up as I hoped they would because:

  • 165,000 child care slots misses a lot of those 265,000 young children.
  • 26,000 CCAP beneficiaries leaves a lot of those 125,000 with lower incomes unassisted.
  • 22,000 in state funded preschool leaves out a lot of eligible children. Even though I don’t have a precise source, I think we might have around 39,000 children who meet the eligibility rules.

Coming next, some added detail on the programs, improved numbers after early pandemic lows, and a look at how these challenges map out over Kentucky’s 120 counties.

Young Children with Low Incomes

47% of Kentucky’s youngest children have household incomes below 200% of the poverty level. That’s about 125,000 of the 265,000 under 5.

The challenge of low family incomes isn’t spread evenly across the state, though. Here’s a map showing county-level differences.

More than 80% of young children in Lee, McCreary, and Wolfe live in low-income houses, spotlighted in darker orange. In a set of lighter orange counties, located mainly east of I-75, more than 60% of children face that economic disadvantage. In contrast, the counties in green –where less than 40% face that challenge– are mostly in the northcentral part of the state. Do note that Jefferson and Fayette (our two largest counties) have rates of 44% and 43%, only a little better off than the statewide 47%.

Because these numbers are five-year estimates, they combine American Community Survey data from 2017 to 2021. They combine pre-pandemic and early pandemic rates. New estimates that add in 2022 data and first recovery-impacts will be available this December.

Child Care Capacity

Kentucky’s childcare capacity can serve about 61% of our children under five. The new Early Childhood Profiles show 2021-22 capacity to serve roughly 163,000 children. In last year’s report, we had only 151,000 seats, so there’s some nice growth there. Even so, we’re well short of enough seats for our 265,000 children too young for kindergarten. Importantly, those seats aren’t evenly distributed, as shown in the next map.

Here, every county shown in yellow, light orange, and darker orange is below that 61% statewide level. In nearly every eastern county, families face higher challenges finding care. Families in and near Jefferson, Fayette, Warren and Northern Kentucky may find it at least a little easier.

Child Care Assistance

In 2021-22, about 21,000 children benefited from CCAP, the program designed to support care for low-income children and workforce participation for their parents. That’s out out of more than 125,000 chlidren with incomes below 200% of poverty. It’s an important improvement over 21,000 a year earlier, but it’s still alarmingly low. Roughly, about 21% of Kentucky’s low-income children benefit from CCAP.

The low state figures convert to a pretty grim map at the county level, one that pretty much only shows low assistance levels. Jefferson, Fayette, Northern Kentucky, and some places nearby have better rates than most of the state, even though no place has rates that count as high or very high.

State Preschool

Since 1990, Kentucky has offered state-funded preschool for four-year-olds from low-income households and for threes and fours with identified disabilities or developmental delays. The Early Childhood profiles show that program serving about 22,000 kids in 2021-22, up from around 18,000 a year earlier.

That’s about 9% of children under five, or about 26,000 kids. Very loosely, another 13,000 might be eligible: that’s my estimate based on about 18,000 eligible based on income, 17,000 based on disabilities/delays, and 4,000 eligible under both criteria.

Mapping by counties, Jefferson, Fayette, Northern Kentucky, and nearby areas have lower preschool rates than most counties shown, and the strongest participation levels are mostly to the south. Their child care strength and preschool weakness may be connected., perhaps because many parents are choosing year-round care over school-year-only preschool. However, Eastern Kentucky stands out with many of the lowest preschool participation rates clustered in that region.

Moving Forward

For Kentucky to build a Big Bold Future, our youngest children must flourish, and their parents must be active contributors to our workforce and our communities. As I said at the outset, my head nearly exploded when I realized how far our key supports for those kids and families are from meeting their needs. These numbers illustrate again the need for new investments, including the $331 million in annual upgrades for early childhood called in the Big Bold Ask.

One more note: these weaknesses will get sharply worse in the coming months if Kentucky does not commit to added investment. As federal pandemic dollars end, there will be too few dollars to sustain even current child care supports. Without added preschool funding, rates per child are dropping, and that program may also become unsustainable. Learn more about this fragile ecosystem here.

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In this post, we’ll offer brief background basics on the SEEK formula, and then break down changes to each part of the funding and the main context changes over these years. To start out, here’s a quick chart of the local and state changes over selected years.

BACKGROUND BASICS

The SEEK formula has three major funding components:

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For a more detailed demonstration of the SEEK formula at work, check out the newest edition of our “SEEK Explainer.”

State budget legislation has made four recent changes that make the formula more generous.

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SEEK BASE

The local share of SEEK base grew 81% from 2008 to 2025. That happened because assessed property values grew 81%, from $262 billion to $474 billion, and each district’s local share is defined as 30¢ per $100 of its assessed property value. Over the same years, state base funding grew only 1%.

TIER 1 EQUALIZED FUNDING

Local Tier 1 funding grew 42%, and state funding grew 50%. When districts set tax rates to bring in more than the 30¢ SEEK base revenue, Tier 1 provides state equalization dollars. Through 2024, districts could receive Tier 1 dollars up to 15% of their SEEK base revenue. In 2025, state budget legislation moved that maximum up to 17.5%.

TIER 2 UNEQUALIZED FUNDING

Tier 2 districts to go beyond Tier 1 to raise dollars that the state will not equalize. That further revenue is limited to 30% of their combined SEEK base and Tier 1 state and local funding, with all dollars coming from local taxation. From 2008 to 2025, that unequalized funding grew very fast, increasing by 199%.

COMBINED CHANGES

Combining Base, Tier 1, and Tier 2 state and local dollars together, SEEK saw an increase of 47% and $1,906 million. The two tables show the combined change results.

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Growth at that pace, created mainly from local resources, created challenges for our schools.

First, the cost of living went up 50%. That’s based on changes to the Consumer Price Index from December 2007 to December 2024 (the midpoints of the two school years).

Second, transportation costs rose faster than inflation. The official state transportation calculation reported that getting students to school and home again had a price tag of $271 million in 2008 and $488 million in 2025—an increase of 80%. State law says the entire cost will be included in the SEEK funding process, but state budget bills have regularly provided less than that. As a result, each district receives a fraction of what the formula promises. In 2024 and 2025, state budget legislation increased transportation funding, but did not eliminate the shortfall.

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The changes relied heavily on unequalized Tier 2 dollars. When funding is unequalized, districts with less taxable wealth bring in less revenue than those with more resources, even when they set identical tax rates.

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A CONCLUDING NOTE

SEEK was designed to provide a sturdy and fair financial foundation for Kentucky’s reformed school system. Changes since 2008 have weakened that foundation, with local districts now contributing substantially more than the state, but without enough combined revenue to keep up with costs and students needs and with sharp differences in resources available to districts with lower and higher levels of taxable wealth. To build a Big Bold Future, Kentucky will need a renewed commitment to adequate and equitable funding for all public schools.

This analysis was prepared by Susan Perkins Weston. For further information on SEEK funding, check out:

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2. Start Conversations That Lead to Action: Data is powerful, but it only leads to change when people act on it. Use the Community Profiles to start discussions with school leaders, elected officials, and fellow community members. Attend school board meetings, organize forums, and encourage dialogue about local education challenges and opportunities.

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Even as momentum built around student opportunity and system innovation, one bill introduced significant questions about how we support access and student success in higher education. House Bill 4 limits how public colleges and universities in Kentucky can design programs or offer services that focus on identity or background. It prohibits institutions from funding or requiring certain trainings, offices, or programs—even those that have helped students feel seen, supported, and ready to succeed. While the bill aims to promote a range of viewpoints, it introduces new uncertainty that could impact how campuses support students.  

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The policies passed this session set the stage—but they won’t deliver results on their own. The challenge now is to turn opportunity into impact. That means local partnerships must move from intention to action. Schools can’t do it alone. Community organizations, nonprofits, and families have a critical role to play in making sure students are supported, systems are responsive, and progress is real. This is the moment calls for community-building as implementation—because lasting change grows from relationships, trust, and shared responsibility.  

Kentucky’s future will be shaped by what we choose to do next, together.