Data
5 min read

Mapping Kentucky Early Childhood

Mapping Kentucky Early Childhood
Written by
The Prichard Committee
Published on
October 16, 2023

After working for years on supporting early childhood improvements, including the Big Bold Ask’s $331 million in annual added investment, I realized early in 2023 that I hadn’t understood the scale of our challenges. I hadn’t taken in how we are from child care capacity reaching all our under-fives, from state child care assistance reaching all our low-income under fives, or from state preschool serving all the children who qualify for it.

In this post, I’ll share the newest version of the numbers that startled me. Readers who know this field well will find this information familiar, of course. For others, this post is a chance to join me in surprise and (I hope) new energy for strengthening support for the youngest Kentuckians.

Big Round Numbers

Kentucky has roughly:

  • 265,000 children under 5
  • 125,000 children 5 and in low-income households

That’s based on American Community Survey’s 2021 five-year estimates, the most recent available that will also let us look at county level age data.

To support those kids, Kentucky has about:

  • 163,000 child care openings
  • 26,000 CCAP (Child Care Assistance Program) recipients
  • 22,000 preschool participants

Those figures come from 2023 Early Childhood Profiles recently released by the Kentucky Center for Statistics. Each is better than the equivalent number reported in 2022, but still weak. Head Start numbers deserve equal consideration here, but this year’s Profiles do not include that data.

These numbers don’t match up as I hoped they would because:

  • 165,000 child care slots misses a lot of those 265,000 young children.
  • 26,000 CCAP beneficiaries leaves a lot of those 125,000 with lower incomes unassisted.
  • 22,000 in state funded preschool leaves out a lot of eligible children. Even though I don’t have a precise source, I think we might have around 39,000 children who meet the eligibility rules.

Coming next, some added detail on the programs, improved numbers after early pandemic lows, and a look at how these challenges map out over Kentucky’s 120 counties.

Young Children with Low Incomes

47% of Kentucky’s youngest children have household incomes below 200% of the poverty level. That’s about 125,000 of the 265,000 under 5.

The challenge of low family incomes isn’t spread evenly across the state, though. Here’s a map showing county-level differences.

More than 80% of young children in Lee, McCreary, and Wolfe live in low-income houses, spotlighted in darker orange. In a set of lighter orange counties, located mainly east of I-75, more than 60% of children face that economic disadvantage. In contrast, the counties in green –where less than 40% face that challenge– are mostly in the northcentral part of the state. Do note that Jefferson and Fayette (our two largest counties) have rates of 44% and 43%, only a little better off than the statewide 47%.

Because these numbers are five-year estimates, they combine American Community Survey data from 2017 to 2021. They combine pre-pandemic and early pandemic rates. New estimates that add in 2022 data and first recovery-impacts will be available this December.

Child Care Capacity

Kentucky’s childcare capacity can serve about 61% of our children under five. The new Early Childhood Profiles show 2021-22 capacity to serve roughly 163,000 children. In last year’s report, we had only 151,000 seats, so there’s some nice growth there. Even so, we’re well short of enough seats for our 265,000 children too young for kindergarten. Importantly, those seats aren’t evenly distributed, as shown in the next map.

Here, every county shown in yellow, light orange, and darker orange is below that 61% statewide level. In nearly every eastern county, families face higher challenges finding care. Families in and near Jefferson, Fayette, Warren and Northern Kentucky may find it at least a little easier.

Child Care Assistance

In 2021-22, about 21,000 children benefited from CCAP, the program designed to support care for low-income children and workforce participation for their parents. That’s out out of more than 125,000 chlidren with incomes below 200% of poverty. It’s an important improvement over 21,000 a year earlier, but it’s still alarmingly low. Roughly, about 21% of Kentucky’s low-income children benefit from CCAP.

The low state figures convert to a pretty grim map at the county level, one that pretty much only shows low assistance levels. Jefferson, Fayette, Northern Kentucky, and some places nearby have better rates than most of the state, even though no place has rates that count as high or very high.

State Preschool

Since 1990, Kentucky has offered state-funded preschool for four-year-olds from low-income households and for threes and fours with identified disabilities or developmental delays. The Early Childhood profiles show that program serving about 22,000 kids in 2021-22, up from around 18,000 a year earlier.

That’s about 9% of children under five, or about 26,000 kids. Very loosely, another 13,000 might be eligible: that’s my estimate based on about 18,000 eligible based on income, 17,000 based on disabilities/delays, and 4,000 eligible under both criteria.

Mapping by counties, Jefferson, Fayette, Northern Kentucky, and nearby areas have lower preschool rates than most counties shown, and the strongest participation levels are mostly to the south. Their child care strength and preschool weakness may be connected., perhaps because many parents are choosing year-round care over school-year-only preschool. However, Eastern Kentucky stands out with many of the lowest preschool participation rates clustered in that region.

Moving Forward

For Kentucky to build a Big Bold Future, our youngest children must flourish, and their parents must be active contributors to our workforce and our communities. As I said at the outset, my head nearly exploded when I realized how far our key supports for those kids and families are from meeting their needs. These numbers illustrate again the need for new investments, including the $331 million in annual upgrades for early childhood called in the Big Bold Ask.

One more note: these weaknesses will get sharply worse in the coming months if Kentucky does not commit to added investment. As federal pandemic dollars end, there will be too few dollars to sustain even current child care supports. Without added preschool funding, rates per child are dropping, and that program may also become unsustainable. Learn more about this fragile ecosystem here.

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From Policy to Partnership: How Communities Will Shape What Comes Next
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From Policy to Partnership: How Communities Will Shape What Comes Next

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The 2025 legislative session came at a time when Kentuckians are not only demanding more from our education systems—they’re rethinking how those systems should work in the first place. The latest Big Bold Future National Rankings report confirms the stakes: Kentucky ranks 47th in preschool enrollment, 46th in postsecondary enrollment, and 44th in degree attainment. But across the state, communities aren’t waiting. Through FAFSA campaigns, early learning collaboratives, and new models for dual credit, tutoring, and diploma redesign, local leaders are building the future from the ground up. This session offered new tools to support that momentum—but real change will come from how we reimagine, re-center, and rebuild systems in partnership with the people they’re meant to serve.

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Even as momentum built around student opportunity and system innovation, one bill introduced significant questions about how we support access and student success in higher education. House Bill 4 limits how public colleges and universities in Kentucky can design programs or offer services that focus on identity or background. It prohibits institutions from funding or requiring certain trainings, offices, or programs—even those that have helped students feel seen, supported, and ready to succeed. While the bill aims to promote a range of viewpoints, it introduces new uncertainty that could impact how campuses support students.  

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THE PATH AHEAD

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Statement on the 2025 Kentucky Legislative Session from Brigitte Blom, the Prichard Committee
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Statement on the 2025 Kentucky Legislative Session from Brigitte Blom, the Prichard Committee

The 2025 General Assembly brought forward a series of education bills—some narrow in scope, others more sweeping...

March 28, 2025

Contact: Lisa McKinney, Communications Director, The Prichard Committee

(cell) 859-475-7202

lisa@prichardcommittee.org

Statement on the 2025 Kentucky Legislative Session from Brigitte Blom, the Prichard Committee

LEXINGTON, Ky — The 2025 General Assembly brought forward a series of education bills—some narrow in scope, others more sweeping—but together, they represent real shifts in how Kentucky supports students and schools. While no single measure defined the session, the cumulative effect is significant. Taken together, these policies signal new expectations for schools and postsecondary institutions—and new responsibilities for the communities that support them.

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House Bill 4 limits how public colleges and universities in Kentucky can design or fund programs for historically underrepresented students. With Kentucky ranking 46th in postsecondary enrollment and 44th in degree attainment—and wide gaps in outcomes by race and ethnicity—the state must closely monitor how these changes affect access, support, and completion. Today, 61% of Asian or Pacific Islander and 36% of white Kentuckians aged 25–64 hold an associate degree or higher, compared to just 29% of Black and 27% of Hispanic or Latino Kentuckians. As institutions adjust, local communities and nonprofits will play an increasingly important role in ensuring all students have the support they need to enroll, persist, and succeed.

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The Prichard Committee believes in the power and promise of public education –early childhood through college– to ensure Kentuckians’ economic and social well-being. We are a citizen-led, non-partisan, solutions-focused nonprofit, established in 1983 with a singular mission of realizing a path to a larger life for Kentuckians with education at the core.

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Automatic Enrollment is a Commonsense Innovation for Kentucky

Automatic enrollment is one of the most intriguing educational innovations in recent years.

By: Jonathan Plucker and Brenda Berg

The Kentucky General Assembly is currently considering a bill that would require school districts to establish policies for automatic enrollment in the Commonwealth’s public schools. Introduced by Rep. Robert Duvall and co-sponsored by Rep. Vanessa Grossl, HB 190 passed the House unanimously and can be considered by the Senate in the session’s final two legislative days on March 27  & 28.      

Automatic enrollment is one of the most intriguing educational innovations in recent years. Also known as auto-, mandatory, or opt-out enrollment, the concept is simple: Students who perform at advanced levels in their classes oron state tests are automatically enrolled in advanced courses for the following academic year.

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We encourage Senate Leadership to bring final passage to House Bill 190 so that Kentucky students can begin benefiting from its provisions.

Concerns about automatic enrollment tend to focus on cost and implementation. Regarding cost, we point to North Carolina’s experience, which began with passage of its auto-enrollment law for mathematics in 2018. The state education agency and districts now have years of experience with implementation and have seen impacts well beyond expectations by elevating the overall importance of advanced coursework opportunities. Cost proved not to be an issue: In the end, the same number of teachers educates the same number of students, leading to no additional financial burden on the state or school districts.

Implementation was challenging in some districts but can be overcome. For example, due to teacher inexperience with advanced coursework and small numbers of identified students, some districts used a range of non-traditional staffing options to promote access, including staff-sharing, transporting students, and online courses to ensure that all eligible students are able to access challenging coursework. In other cases, it was simply not on their radar that they weren’t offering advanced courses commensurate with other districts, and they could just reassign existing staff to, for example, teach algebra instead of the standard 8th grade course.

Despite these implementation challenges, North Carolina’s experience is a major policy success, with thousands of additional students enrolling in advanced math courses each year. An important key to the state’s success is that auto-enrollment begins in elementary school, before students get lost in the transitions to middle and high school. The effects appear to be most significant with middle school students and those from traditionally underserved backgrounds, such as the rural and low-income students noted above. Similar success in Kentucky would transform the STEM pipeline in the Commonwealth.

If passed and signed into law, House Bill 190 allows the Kentucky Board of Education to create regulations to administer the new provisions. We strongly encourage the Board to require the Kentucky Department of Education to (1) collect districts’ advanced education plans to promote public access to the information and (2) issue an annual report summarizing the impact of auto-enrollment, including district level reports of the number and percentage of eligible students served. Annual reports in North Carolina have been invaluable data sources for tracking the impact of the law.

HB 190 is bold, innovative, and highly likely to be effective. It will provide a strong foundation for efforts to help Kentucky’s students excel in the classroom and eventually in the workforce.

Jonathan Plucker is a professor at Johns Hopkins University and a past-president of the National Association for Gifted Children. Brenda Berg is President & CEO of BEST NC (Business for Educational Success and Transformation in North Carolina).