Early Childhood Toolkit: Data Outcomes

What Are Lagging Indicators and Why Do They Matter? 

Lagging indicators are outcomes connected to major goals and desired results - like graduation rates. They tell us the story of what has happened in the past. They are useful for understanding how the system performs. By evaluating historical data, schools and districts can determine the effectiveness of past strategies, measure the impact of actions or interventions, and communicate transparently with stakeholders about their performance.

Readiness to learn and thrive in kindergarten is the single most important and universally measured signal of what a young individual has experienced in the past, from pre-natal, to birth, infancy, toddlerhood, and preschool age.  Kindergarten readiness, in turn, is a strong predictor of successful participation and transitions in school during the primary years, up to third grade, and increases the likelihood that a young learner will be proficient and confident by the end of third grade and beyondⁱⁱⁱ.

Kindergarten Readiness: What is it and why does it matter? 

Kindergarten readiness refers to the cognitive, social, emotional, and physical competencies that indicate the degree to which children are prepared to thrive in a formal school setting and succeed in kindergarten and beyond.  States definitions of kindergarten or school readinessⁱⁱⁱ vary, and focus either only on the child’s acquisition of competencies, or solely on the context – schools, families and communities, or on both the child and the context^iv.  

In Kentucky, kindergarten readiness means that each child enters school ready to engage in and benefit from early learning experiences that best promote the child’s success^v.  Kentucky identifies five developmental areas of school readiness:

• Approaches to learning: initiating and engaging in learning experiences, including attention, focus, creativity and imagination, exploration and investigation, strategic task completion and problem-solving;
• Health and physical well-being: reaching physical developmental milestones and developing healthy lifestyles;
• Language and communication development: communicating and connecting with others through listening, expressing, speaking, reading and writing;
• Social and emotional development: demonstrating trust and engaging in social relationships, including a healthy sense of self, healthy social and emotional skills, problem-solving and conflict-resolution; and
• Cognitive and general knowledge: using thinking, reasoning and problem-solving skills and memory to make sense of their world through literacy, mathematics, science, social studies and the arts.^vi

According to the Kentucky Early Childhood Profiles^vii, average kindergarten readiness rates have remained at approximately 50% over the last ten years.  Most notably, a significant dip was observed in 2022 and 2023, for kindergarteners who were two and three years old when the pandemic began in 2020.  For your community’s kindergarten readiness data, go to The Kentucky Early Childhood Profiles and the Prichard Committee’s Community Profiles^viii (see links under Where to Find the Data).  

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Figure 1

KY Kindergarten Readiness Ten Year Trend

 
Why Does It Matter?

The human brain is most adaptable and flexible in the first few years of life, when more than 1 million new neural connections are formed every second in every part of the brain^ix. By age five, over 90% of the brain architecture has already been shaped. Rewiring existing neural connections also becomes increasingly more difficult with age.   Therefore, high quality, developmentally appropriate learning experiences from birth to age five maximizes this prime window of opportunity^x to solidify children’s foundational learning and development and prepares them to thrive in school and life.  

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Figure 2  

Brain Functional Development in the Early Years

Children who enter kindergarten more ready to grow and learn have an advantage over their peers who are less ready to do so, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, which examines the domain of kindergarten readiness through two indicators – academic readiness and self-regulation/attention^xi.  Lower levels of kindergarten readiness are associated with poorer academic outcomes from elementary to high school.^{xii xiii xiv xv} Conversely, the quality, richness, developmental appropriateness, and cultural responsiveness of a child’s early experiences can provide a strong foundation for later learning, development, and behaviors^xvi.  

• Kindergarten-ready students are significantly more likely to achieve third grade proficiency.
• Children who received quality early childhood education are less likely to be enrolled in special education classes.
• Students are less likely to repeat a grade.
• Children participating in high-quality early learning programs have higher graduation rates.  
• Attending early learning programs is linked to a 5.5% increase in attendance at a four-year college.

Kentucky’s 2019 kindergarteners who were rated as ”kindergarten ready” and ”kindergarten ready with enrichments” on the Brigance kindergarten screener were significantly more likely to score proficient or distinguished on their third3rd grade state reading assessment, and 2019 kindergarteners who were rated not ready on Brigance were more likely to score novice or apprentice on 3rd grade reading.  The same pattern holds true for third 3rd grade math proficiency.

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Figure 3

KY Kindergarten Readiness and Third Grade Reading Proficiency

Source: Kentucky Early Childhood Profiles. https://kystats.ky.gov/Latest/ECP  

Studies show that access to quality early learning programs can reduce educational and opportunity gaps between children from low and high-income families at kindergarten entry.^xvii A growing body of research points to the conclusion that children who live in poverty and attend a quality preschool program experience long-lasting primary and secondary positive effect.

The improvements for these children’s early childhood intellectual, social, emotional, and dispositional performances extend throughout their school years in areas of:

• learning;  
• reduced need for placement in special education classes in later childhood;  
• higher school achievement and commitment in early adolescence;  
• lower rates of high school incompletions, juvenile arrests, and welfare assistance as an adult; and  
• higher instances of wealth in later adolescence and early adulthood.^xviii

Long-term health^xix and economic^xx benefits are also associated with high-quality early-learning experiences that lead to kindergarten readiness. Adults who participated in high quality early childhood education had lower rates of heart disease, diabetes, and depression, and had lower tobacco and alcohol use rates.  They were also more likely to be employed full-time, own a home, have a savings account and more likely to earn a living wage. They were less likely to be on public assistance, be divorced, incarcerated or experience teen pregnancy.

Nobel Prize-winning economist James Heckman of the University of Chicago has long argued that government investment in early childhood in institutional care pays off both for individuals and for society at large. He calculates the return on investment in high-quality birth-to-five education at between 7% and 13%^xxi. Access to high quality and affordable early care and education enables available adults to participate in the workforce, thereby increasing family economic stability.  Adults are also able to pursue further schooling and professional growth opportunities which contribute to economic mobility.

Where to Find the Data

Data on kindergarten readiness by school district can be found at the following sources:

• Kentucky School Report Card - Select the school district and then search for Kindergarten Screen in the search by data indicator box.
• Kentucky Early Childhood Profiles - From the drop-down menus select the school district and the year.  
• Prichard Committee Groundswell Community Profiles - Go to the school district and select the year.  

If We Do Nothing

If Kentucky makes no changes, the state’s Kindergarten Readiness numbers are likely to continue to plateau or to trend downward.

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Figure 4

Historical Data and Forecast Trend of Kindergarten Readiness – Ready and Ready with Enrichments – in Kentucky

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Source: KYSTATS Early Childhood Profile

For additional Kindergarten Readiness trajectories, download our Early Childhood Outcome Data Forecast Trajectory Report.